So just how bad for Republicans is that newly redrawn Precinct 1 on Commissioner’s Court?

by Mark Brown ~ June 9th, 2011. Filed under: Uncategorized.

During the brouhaha that erupted last Tuesday at the meeting of the Dallas County Commissioner's Court, a great document was released which detailed the county's analysis of the demographics in each district.


Dallas County District Stats

So, according to their data, Precinct 1 is estimated to have 140,298 white adults, 179,445 hispanic adults, and 87,602 black adults.  This precinct is a majority hispanic district.  Using estimates and research from the last Presidential election in 2008, we learn that 63.3% of whites in this part of the country voted in the last election, vs. 26.8% of hispanics, and 61.3% of blacks.  Of those who voted, 43% of whites voted for Obama, 31% of Hispanics, and 95% of blacks. So with a little figuring, it's not hard to see the advantages of the new Precinct 1 Commissioner's Court for the Democrats:

Whites Hispanics Blacks
Adult Population 140,298 179,445 87,602
Percent Who Voted in 2008 x   63.3% x  26.8% x  61.3%
Total Voters 88,808 48,091 53,700
Percent Obama Voters for 2012 x  43% x  67% x  95%
Total Estimated Obama Voters 39,164 33,183 51,015

 

Likely 2012 Election Results
Total Republican Votes Total Democrat Votes
Whites 48,844 39,964
Hispanics 14,908 33,183
Blacks +  2,685 +  51,015
Total Votes 66,437 124,162

Democrat Party Wins Commissioners Precinct by 57,725 votes.

Even though Hispanics have the lowest voter turnout, nevertheless, the group provides almost as many votes as blacks, because demographically, Hispanics are by far the largest group in this area. Even more importantly, the county's demographic research estimates a total Hispanic population of 288,950, but only 179,445 adults.  This means there are 109,505 Hispanic children.  If you assume their ages are distributed fairly evenly between 0 and 17 years, then that means each and every single year another 6,083 Hispanics turn 18 and can vote, which works out to an additional 1,092 Democrat voters each and every year if the Republicans do nothing.  In other words, the Republicans, particularly in Dallas, must make Hispanic outreach their number one priority. If Republicans do nothing more to outreach to this group, then the county is lost, as will be all of Texas in due course.

Cheers,

Mark Brown,
President,
Dallas County Young Republicans

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